In 2010, the Chinese auto market has steadily exceeded 18 million sales and delivered an exciting response. What about 2011?

Although the withdrawal of support policies and the consumption of overdrafts at the end of the year in 2010, chills hit, the Chinese auto market in 2011 looked a bit “hanging”, but when the calendar opened a new page, who could conclude that the Chinese auto market stood The shoulders of the world's largest market will not continue to create a new round of miracles?

Standing at the starting point of 2011, the growth of the auto market slowed down to a certain extent, but for the Chinese automobile market, confidence is more important than gold. The auto companies after the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” are still ambitious, and they are eager to show their skills in the key points of industrial restructuring, new energy vehicles, and independent brand strategy. In 2011, where did the Chinese auto market go? Now we can look forward boldly.

Outlook I: 20 million production and marketing suspense

In early 2010, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers adjusted several times and predicted that China's automobile production and sales will be positioned at 17 million vehicles. However, the Chinese auto market is so unpredictable that after 10 months, it has exceeded the sales volume of last year. China's auto industry has once again raised its forecast, and China's auto production and sales have steadily exceeded 18 million.

In the face of the rapid development of the domestic auto market in 2010, many industry experts and auto companies have high hopes for the auto market in 2011. Although the slowdown in growth is almost certain, the growth in the auto market that has lost policy boost will continue.

Compared with last year, although this year will not exceed the high growth of 30% last year, it seems that the growth of 10%-20% has become the consensus of the industry. Ma Dejun, general manager of Chery Sales Co., said that it is expected that the auto market will increase by more than 10% this year. Ding Lei, general manager of Shanghai GM, judged that although the Chinese auto industry will slow down this year's growth rate, it will maintain a 15% growth rate.

According to this calculation, China's auto production and sales are still expected to exceed 20 million in 2011. The potential of the Chinese automotive market is still huge. Although the auto market in the first-tier cities has become saturated, with the release of consumption in second and third-tier cities, 20 million vehicles are not a difficult task for the auto market that has just entered the fast lane.

Outlook II: New Energy Vehicles Are Popularized

Last year was a major breakthrough for China's electric vehicles. Whether it was the Beijing auto show in April last year or the Guangzhou auto show at the end of the year, they all sent a signal that new energy vehicles will become an advantageous weapon for future companies to compete for the commanding heights.

Although the products of new energy vehicles are still a certain distance away from the actual volume production, no one company does not want to stand out in industrialization with the support of national industrial policies.

With the constant improvement of the city’s policy to ease traffic pressure and environmental governance, new energy vehicles are not far away from us. Last year, Chery's new energy vehicle QQ3EV had its first license in Jinan City, Shandong Province, and it finally had a legally valid certificate. Beiqi Futian, with the help of Beijing’s vigorous development of public transportation, provided 1,000 new energy vehicles to local governments and began the process of marketization of new energy vehicles.

From the establishment of the Central Enterprise Alliance to the local government's delineation of the new energy strategy, last year not only established the development strategy for electric vehicles, but also gave the world a signal that China will “carry over” in the new energy structure, which means new Energy vehicles will be widely used in China in the near future.

From the adjustment of preferential policies at the end of last year, the reduction of purchase tax for traditional cars was abolished, and the policies for encouraging new energy vehicles will be relaxed. The subsidies for new energy vehicles have become the only object of support in the auto market. In 2011, with the growth of China's auto market, new energy may become a new force.

Outlook III: The self-owned brand will mature

In 2010, independent brands in the domestic automotive market showed unprecedented results. Product R&D, new product launches, product reserves, diversification, and market share all achieved rapid development.

Under the trend of slower growth in 2011, the independent brands represented by Chery, Geely and Great Wall Motor may not achieve rapid improvement in the transformation of high-end models, but this year they will continue to increase their efforts to adjust production capacity and product quality. , go all out to work hard for the independent brand.

At the same time, joint venture brands have also launched their own brand models. In the case of joint venture brands, after years of cooperation with foreign brands, the company has entered a higher level of secondary innovation and self-development stage after the introduction of models and the simple cultivation of market cultivation.

In addition, the government’s support and encouragement for independent research and development is precisely the booster for the independent brand building of these auto groups and joint ventures. The State Council last year released the "Detailed Rules for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automotive Industry in 2009-2011", which mentioned in many places the need to "support the independent innovation of automobile companies, vehicle R&D, and especially the autonomy of key component technologies." Under the background of independent innovation and construction of an innovative country, the market strategy of independent brands, whether joint ventures or autonomy, has laid a solid foundation for future market development. Based on China’s huge potential in the automotive market, it will be autonomous in 2011. The brand will mature.

Outlook IV: Joint Venture Reorganization

Last year, the hot spots of domestic auto group mergers and acquisitions, overseas mergers and acquisitions, and China-foreign re-joint ventures were not exhaustive. Among them, mergers and acquisitions and joint ventures have become the main theme of capacity expansion.

Under the promotion of a number of national automobile consumption policies, 2010 China Auto Group mergers and acquisitions and Sino-foreign joint ventures signed a number of agreements, and these production capacity will undoubtedly begin to release in 2011.

Whether it is the restructuring of Dongfeng Group, GAC Guangzhou Auto Group, or Beijing Auto's acquisition of Baolong Group, the wave of reorganization is far from a standstill. In 2010, SAIC achieved a production and sales plan of 3 million vehicles. FAW Group, Dongfeng Group, and Chang'an Group have already reached the production and sales target of 2 million vehicles. The “big four” and “four small” groups delineated by the state all completed the production and sales plan in 2010 and progressed toward the next five-year plan.

Most of the Sino-foreign joint venture projects have been settled in 2010, and 2011 is undoubtedly the year of fruition. The joint venture between GAC and Fiat will begin in the beginning of this year, and the joint venture between FAW and GM will also be on track. The Changan and PSA projects will start this year. In addition, Renault, Land Rover and other multinational car companies are also actively looking for the possibility of joint ventures, in order to achieve rapid development in China to find a suitable joint venture.

Domestic auto companies have already shown signs of rapid growth. This year, there may be more names of Chinese auto companies in the global top 500 and higher seats.

Outlook Five: Capital Power Involves in the Automotive Industry

In fact, in the face of the growth potential of Chinese autos, more auto companies have begun to try to capitalize on the capital market to achieve their own goals of becoming bigger and bigger. In 2010, GAC Group took the lead in listing and began to embark on the path of joint ventures and mergers with the power of capital. It has made considerable progress in building its own brand.

In 2010, auto companies such as FAW, BAIC and Chery also completed joint-stock reforms and personnel adjustments. They are racing against time and hope to land on the capital market this year to realize their desire to raise capital.

Dealers also began to attempt to resist the risks in the future auto market. In 2010, with China becoming the world’s largest auto consumption market, auto dealers became a hot spot for investment. A number of auto dealers went to Hong Kong and China for listing in the United States, and Soros also bet China’s Zhengtong Auto. In the rest of the list, there is no shortage of dealer groups like “bullish” waiting in line for approval by the Securities and Futures Commission.

After the Chinese auto market experienced high growth in 2010, 2011 was destined to be a year of adjustment, and corporate listing is undoubtedly a collective change. "Not on the market, it is on the way to go public; not on the acquisition, it is on the way to being a shareholder." This is like a portrayal of the Chinese auto market in 2011.