An Interpretation of the Impact of China's Auto Subsidy Policy on Terminating the Mini Vehicle Market in China in 2011


In the context of the state's preferential policies concerning car-to-country and small-displacement vehicle purchase tax relief, the mini-vehicle market in China in 2009 and 2010 presented an unprecedentedly fiery scene. Many domestic auto companies have established the development philosophy that micro-vehicle winning is a global win.

Many auto companies have rushed to the mini-vehicle market to compete for this fat. At present, the domestic mini-vehicle market has entered a state of intense competition: Changan is expected to surpass SAIC-GM-Wuling after completion of its industrial layout, and at the time of the two rivals, other mini-car brands have also begun to exert themselves. In recent years, there has been no improvement in the FAW mini-vehicle project. With the strong support of the Group, it is ready to revive its glory. Dongfeng, Beijing Automotive, Gonow, Lifan and other car companies also began to make efforts in the micro-car market.

From the data, we can see that in 2009, the growth rate of mini vehicle sales was the highest. In 2010, it was not easy to achieve a 28% increase in the higher market base in 2009. According to calculations made by the company, the automobile to the countryside has probably led to an increase of more than 20% in micro-customers. According to the market size, the sales of micro-car sales in 2009 and 2010 will increase by 800,000. In the nearly two years since the introduction of the National Auto Subsidy Policy for Rural Areas, while a large number of rural residents benefited, the domestic mini-vehicle market also gradually showed signs of saturation. The micro-vehicle industry has seen swift growth in the short term, which has brought about a faster growth in the speed of corporate investment. In the absence of better investment projects in the country, the market will grow by 10% and investment may increase by 20%. Therefore, there may be a serious overcapacity crisis.

How large is the size of the micro-vehicle market in China? It is hard to say that compared with the development of traditional automobiles, domestic development rules in the field of micro-vehicles can not find international experience. However, the market capacity is ultimately limited, and the automobile-to-country policy has a great impact on the micro-customer market. The cancellation of the 2011 policy will have a far-reaching impact on the micro-customer market, which will lead to a low growth or zero growth in the mini-vehicle market in 2011.

Enterprises should begin to adjust the mini vehicle market. First of all, for many auto companies now have the micro-car expansion situation, companies in the calm analysis of the micro-car market, while strengthening the micro-car technology innovation, we should improve the micro-car quality and technology efforts to avoid homogenous competition. Secondly, enterprises should adjust their production and sales targets as soon as possible, formulate viable development plans on the basis of conducting thorough market research, and avoid impacts on corporate profits due to sharp declines in sales volume. Third, from the current sales situation, due to the meager profits of mini vehicles, some grass-roots mini vehicle dealers are considering changing jobs. Therefore, on the one hand, related companies should fully consider the interests of grass-roots distributors, mobilize the enthusiasm of distributors through the introduction of encouraging policies, and stabilize the military; on the other hand, they should communicate with the relevant national authorities as soon as possible, and consider before the end of the automobile to the countryside and other policies. It is recommended that new policies be formulated to continue to stimulate the development of the auto market.

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