LNG vehicle economical pause temporarily waiting for environmental protection policy bonus


LNG has continued to rise in price expectations and there is still a possibility of price increases in the short term

The NDRC issued a document on June 28 to increase the price of natural gas portals and strive to obtain the same stock gas and incremental gas prices by 2015, which means that the average natural gas portal price in 2015 may reach approximately RMB 3/m3. At present, the actual price increase in various regions ranges from 0.4 to 1 yuan/cubic meter, and there is still room for upwards of 0.6 yuan/cubic meter or more. The natural gas liquefaction plant's intake price has been market-priced and has seen a big drop in the last three months. Due to the demand for peaking in winter, there is still upward pressure on LNG in the near term.

The price difference between oil and gas dropped from 40% to 20%, and the economic efficiency of LNG heavy trucks has dropped significantly

The current LNG vehicle terminal price is above 4.5 yuan/cubic meter. Corresponding to No. 0 diesel at 7.1 yuan/liter and annual heavy-duty operating mileage of less than 150,000 kilometers, the payback period for the 100,000 yuan increase in vehicle owners' conversion from diesel to LNG is more than one year. Because the domestic logistics industry is generally in a state of scattered and low-price competition, owners have poor control over operational risks after one year, and the economics of LNG heavy trucks need to be achieved through road conditions, gas stations, and supply sources. For shippers with an annual operating load of less than 150,000 kilometers, the economic attractiveness of LNG heavy trucks has been significantly reduced.

LNG heavy truck industry growth slowed, LNG vehicle bottles have overcapacity pressure

Affected by the expected impact of shrinking oil and gas prices, and LNG may still rise, LNG heavy truck sales growth has declined in the short term. We initially estimate that sales of LNG heavy trucks in the first and second half of the year will be 20,000 units and 15,000 units respectively, which will increase by approximately 100% year-on-year, while the growth rate of LNG heavy trucks in the past 15 years will be 57% and 55%, respectively. 55,000 and 85,000 vehicles. At present, there are 40 companies in the country that can produce LNG vehicle-mounted bottles. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 220,000 bottles and 500,000 bottles by the end of the year. The growth rate of production capacity is higher than the demand growth rate, which may bring pressure to lower prices.

We look forward to promotion of environmental protection policy measures such as National 4 diesel

If the heavy truck uses Guosei Diesel, the one-time conversion investment of LNG will be reduced to 50,000 yuan. Moreover, because of the higher price of national diesel, LNG conversion investment can be recovered in 4 to 5 months. However, the promotion of national diesel oil requires the upgrading of oil products and the establishment of a nationwide supply system for urea solutions for vehicles. At present, there are no conditions for national implementation. Whether it can be fully implemented next year is still uncertain.

In addition, urban public transport has public service attributes and is less sensitive to economic performance. In order to reduce PM2.5 emissions, the growth rate of urban public transport using LNG may increase significantly due to environmental protection policies.

Waiting for the natural gas industry to rectify and clarify the environmental protection policy

Natural gas has a long-term prospect. Currently, LNG price increases and subsequent price increases are expected to weaken the economic momentum of the rapid development of LNG heavy trucks. At the same time, due to drastic changes in the senior level of CNPC, the pace of development of the domestic natural gas business may be temporarily conservative. For the LNG heavy truck industry, it is difficult to have more than expected factors. We have temporarily given the "cautious recommendation" rating for the LNG vehicle equipment sector.



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