The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned on the 26th that the "12th Five-Year Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") of the construction machinery industry has completed the first round of revisions in accordance with the revised opinions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and will be discussed at the Construction Machinery Industry Association on the 26th, and The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce discussed the matter and is expected to formally promulgate in October this year.

Mao Zhongwen, deputy secretary-general of the Construction Machinery Industry Association responsible for drafting the plan, is also the compiler of five five-year industry development plans for the “7th Five-Year” to “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” of the construction machinery industry. He was interviewed by the reporter of “Economic Information Daily”. Said that the "planning" will encourage the industry to reorganize mergers and acquisitions, use market competition mechanisms to eliminate backwardness, and control the approval of land for low-level duplicate construction projects and engineering construction projects. By the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the sales scale of China's top 100 engineering machinery enterprises should reach over 85% of the entire industry, and strive to cultivate large-scale enterprises with strong competitiveness and innovation ability into aircraft carrier-type international famous companies.

According to Mao Zhongwen, China’s construction machinery sales and sales have now become the world’s largest. From January to July this year, the sales of eight major models increased by 67%, and sales increased by 63%. It is expected that the industry will achieve growth this year. More than 30%, exports are expected to reach 8.5 billion to 9 billion US dollars.

Constraints

Regulatory blank standard is too low

In the numerous corporate mid-year reports just released, the construction machinery industry is undoubtedly the most dazzling segment. The unexpectedly explosive growth of its performance has also surprised industry experts. In fact, the industry has maintained rapid growth since 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 24.7% from 2006 to 2009. Imports in 2005 were US$3.064 billion and exports were US$2.94 billion. From deficit to basically flat, by 2008, import volume rose to US$6.016 billion in double years, doubled; exports rose to 13.422 billion. The dollar, an increase of 356%.

However, Mao Zhongwen told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that although the development momentum is very good, there are still many weak links in the construction machinery industry, and there are multiple domestic and international constraints.

First of all, the most serious problems lie in regulation and standards. Due to the low standards and the lack of supervision, a considerable part of the approximately 3.5 million engineering machinery currently in operation in China is part of this phase-out or scrapped product. Private transactions are serious and tax evasion and other phenomena are common. What is even more shocking is that due to the lack of supervision and the large domestic market demand, a large number of second-hand mobile phones are dumped in China. China has now become the center of the international inferior mobile phone market.

In addition to the international low-quality second-hand mobile phones, many domestic enterprises with agricultural machinery licenses and small-scale simple construction machines are used in industrial projects and are largely removed from construction machinery in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hebei. They not only have excessively exceeded standards in terms of energy consumption, noise, etc., but also wear the coat of “agricultural construction machinery” to receive state financial subsidies and enjoy sales tax incentives. This not only disrupts the market, runs counter to energy saving and emission reduction, but also buries potential safety hazards. Mao Zhongwen said, “For simple small-scale construction machinery that serves the three rural economy, we must strictly control product quality, safety, environmental protection, and other regulatory standards, and establish a threshold for entry into the market. All used machines should have files, have household registration, and the time for scrapping should be clearly defined. A compulsory elimination system should be established so as to maintain the healthy development of the industry."

Another problem in the construction machinery industry is that key component manufacturing and core technologies severely restrict industry development and industrial transformation. The key components of the current construction machinery are in serious shortage. The key components used in the high-end technology host products are almost entirely imported. “Some of the internationally strong companies either don’t give them or have limited supply due to the consideration of their own industrial safety, and there are price increases. , delayed delivery and other ways to card our neck." Mao Zhongwen said without anxiety. It is understood that intellectual property protection in China's construction machinery industry is very weak today, and open and undisclosed infringements between enterprises have occurred from time to time. The problem of the parts and components industry is even more serious, and almost 90% of the companies are keen to imitate.

In addition, there is a problem of low-level homogeneity and disorderly competition in the construction machinery industry, resulting in excess capacity and low-quality and low-efficiency products circulated in the market.

planning

Double growth in sales scale and product added value

In view of the problems existing in the construction machinery industry, the main theme of this "12th Five-Year Plan" is to adjust the structure and change the mode of growth. According to the forecast of the domestic market and the development of the international market, the planning of the construction machinery industry in China will reach 900 billion yuan in sales by 2015. The average annual growth rate will be approximately 17%, of which exports will account for about 20 billion US dollars. The largest exporter of international construction machinery. At the same time, further increase the technical value of product sales, of which 20% of the growth rate should be reflected in the increase in product technology added value.

The international construction machinery manufacturing industry is mainly concentrated in four major regions: North America, European Union, Japan, and China. From 2002 to 2009, China’s growth was the strongest and sales increased by 379%, followed by the EU and Japan, which increased by 54.46% and 78%. From the perspective of exports, Japan and the EU are major exporters, but China’s export growth is most prominent. In 2008, exports increased by 17.8 times compared with 2002, accounting for 18% of the international circulation, and have become major exporters of international construction machinery.

From the market demand, the largest demand is China. From 2000 to 2009, China’s market share rose from 7% to 47.71%; Western Europe dropped from 30% to 14.47%; North American market dropped from 36% to 12.37%; Japan The market dropped from 15% to 3.8%. Excluding the financial crisis, it can still be seen that the Chinese market and other emerging markets such as India, Brazil and Russia are becoming the main markets for the development of international construction machinery.

“The market demand for construction machinery and the scale of investment in the entire society are two brothers,” Mao Zhongwen said vividly. “The market demand and investment scale over the years have a regular strained relationship, and the growth in total fixed asset investment in the society during the 12th Five-Year Plan period has increased. The average rate of this rate should be controlled at a level of 20%, and the analysis shows that in 2015 China's market demand for construction machinery will reach 851 billion yuan."

It is reported that the "Planning" will guide the development of construction machinery products to the middle-to-high-end direction, vigorously increase the proportion of independent intellectual property rights, and limit the entry of low-end products to the market through the technical and regulatory standards of environmental emissions, safety, energy consumption, etc. Poor quality products with hidden safety hazards must be strictly supervised, and the proportion of high-end products must reach a certain level during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.

Focus

Adjustment structure and independent innovation

It is understood that the "planning" will encourage the industry to reorganize mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backwardness through market competition mechanisms, and control the approval of land for low-level duplicate construction projects and engineering construction projects. According to the "planning" goal, by the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the sales scale of China's top 100 engineering machinery enterprises must reach over 85% of the entire industry, and strive to cultivate large-scale enterprises with strong competitiveness and innovation ability to become aircraft carrier-type international famous the company.

From the perspective of specific enterprises, Xugong Group, Zoomlion (000157) and Sany Heavy Industry (600031) all plan to achieve sales revenue of more than 100 billion yuan at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. Liugong (000528) shares and Shandong Heavy Industry Group set sales targets at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” at 50 billion yuan. Other large-scale enterprises such as Xiagong, Longgong and other 11 large-scale group companies are expected to reach 600 billion yuan in sales in 2015, accounting for more than 60% of the industry scale.

Mao Zhongwen said, "Original innovation, integrated innovation, introduction, digestion and absorption, and re-innovation must be implemented as important goals. We must strengthen the construction of innovative R&D systems for basic technologies and key supporting parts and components, such as common technologies, and recommend that outstanding projects be selected through competition. Prepare specific specific plans that are in line with the development of the market economy and include them in the key support development targets of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.”

Mao Zhongwen also said that in the "planning" discussion draft, it is proposed to adjust the direction and support of the country's fiscal policy and industrial policy support. In addition to the adjustment of the tax rate of the entire industry, increase the rate of tax preference for energy-saving emission reduction products. It is suggested that the definition of the industrial structure adjustment of the equipment manufacturing industry should be defined by the principles of expression, encouragement, restriction, and elimination of products in the relevant product areas in terms of laws, regulations, technical standards, and industry standards. At the same time, speed up the revision of industry and product technology standards, and gradually follow international standards, highlighting technological progress and innovative development ideas.

In the first half of last year, many salesmen of construction machinery companies were still worrying about the weak demand, but in the first half of this year, this kind of "cloud" has disappeared.

Tomorrow (August 27th) is the last semi-annual report of Liugong (000528) (000528.SZ), the last listed company of the eight major construction machinery companies. The company had expected to achieve a net profit of about 896 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 142.46% year-on-year. Prior to this, the other seven listed companies have each submitted a bright answer.

Few industries can collectively present such performance. Guo Yaling, an analyst at CITIC Securities (600030), believes that the prosperity of the construction machinery industry in the first half of the year significantly exceeds market expectations. This exceed-than-expected increase mainly comes from the lagging effect of “four trillion” investment, high real estate investment growth and gradual recovery of exports. Overlay factor.

XGMA (600815) sales person told China Business News that “The sales in the first half of this year were significantly better than in the first half of last year. Some varieties were in short supply, and sales in the first half of last year were too bad, but last year The first half of the year is still much better than the end of 2008."

According to data from the China Construction Machinery Industry, sales of excavators, truck cranes, loaders, and bulldozers increased by 98%, 50%, 65%, and 86% in the first half of the year, with concrete machinery sales exceeding the full year of 2009 in the first half of the year. Sum.

In the first half of the year, the construction machinery industry achieved a total output value of 214.589 billion yuan, an increase of 60.46% year-on-year; and an export delivery value of 8.336 billion, an increase from the 2.68% from January to February to 49.68%. The growth rate ranked first in the machinery industry. Presenting the best level of history.

For the substantial increase in performance, the explanations of various listed companies are almost all due to the strong market demand for domestic construction machinery.

Wang Changjiang, special advisor of the China Hydraulic Pneumatic Sealing Industry Association, believes that the operation of the construction machinery industry in the first half of this year was contrary to many people's expectations. “Even if many companies work overtime and work hard, the market is still in short supply. ."

Industrial Securities analyst Wu Hua also conducted research and concluded that regional sales are indeed very hot, especially in Xinjiang and Sichuan. Many of the infrastructure projects laid out all over the country have just started, and the demand for equipment is high. The start-up of affordable housing and low-rent housing has partially offset the decline in commercial housing.

Wu Hua believes that the sales of various products of construction machinery in the second half of the year are still good, and the overall sales volume and revenue in the second half of the year are more likely to increase than the same period of last year.

Guo Yaling estimated that the construction machinery industry's sales this year will be 439.3 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, and total sales in 2011 will be 517.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18% over the same period last year.

As market demand continues to show significant growth in the next few years, companies are trying to increase production capacity. Zoomlion (000157) stated that the company had invested 3.55 billion yuan in the first half of the year to invest in promising investment projects. In the second half of this year, the company will speed up its production capacity and actively build and expand production capacity.

On August 20, Liugong also issued an announcement saying that the company intends to increase its issuance of no more than 150 million shares by no less than 20.61 yuan per share, raising no more than 3 billion yuan in funds for annual production of 10,000 engineering machinery projects, etc. 5 projects and additional liquidity.

Although a number of listed companies in construction machinery are improving their production capacity by “strengthening the strength”, the return on assets may be reduced after the increase in production capacity. Wu Hua warned that from the perspective of the next 3 to 5 years, the overall ROE (net asset yield) of the construction machinery industry will show a downward trend.

Wang Changjiang also warned that the future development of China's construction machinery industry will face six major crises: cost, technology, and environmental protection.

The rapid growth of the Chinese market has also attracted the attention of international giants.

On August 24th, Doug Oberhelman, who had just taken over as Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar, said in an interview with reporters that although some American companies are afraid of competition from low-cost products in China, Caterpillar is willing to meet this challenge. The proportion of China's business income to global total income has remained at about 5% for some time, and it has only started to climb until two years ago. He established the goal of making Caterpillar an industry top brand by 2015.

In addition, Sandvik, Sweden’s heavy industry giant, has also accelerated the development of the Chinese market. The latest measure is to set up an R&D center in Shanghai. This R&D center will account for 15% of its global R&D capacity. “This will shorten the product development cycle and shorten the time for customers. Distance.” said Bo Ruyong, president of Sandvik East Asia. Boruyun did not want to disclose the operating figures for the first half of the year, but he said that China's mining machinery industry is expected to maintain a 15% growth this year, and Sandvik's growth rate is twice the industry average.