The tepid market for construction machinery poses new challenges
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Construction machinery industry is a love and hate industry. I love this industry because of her rapid growth over the past 10 years. By 2011, the average growth rate of loaders exceeded 25%, and that of excavators exceeded 30%. This miracle of high-speed growth has never been seen anywhere in the world. Hate this industry, because the Chinese people's quick successes, risk-free credit sales, irrational "zero down payment", installment payments, "trade-in", etc., so that many manufacturers and distributors not only did not make much money, but also Bears a very high financial risk. Recently, the construction machinery industry has made outstanding progress in the low tide, but it is still full of fire.
In June this year, the major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 8,328 excavators, which was -28% from the previous month, which represented 0% year-on-year, accumulating -12% year-on-year. Domestic market share of branded brands dropped by 3% MoM. In June, domestic brand market share was 42%, down three points from the previous month. The proportion of Zhongda’s excavation rose slightly, and exports remained depressed.
July excavator sales will not fail
In the survey of construction machinery dealers in July, most dealers reported that the sales volume of excavators in July was relatively normal, and they did not see too much changes in the demand side, and the sales volume increased by a year-on-year. The overall situation in the first half of the month was basically in line with the previous expectations of about 70% of dealers. It is expected that this irresolute situation will continue.
Downstream demand remained stable. The demand for mines in the northern regions has still not improved and the sales volume has fallen significantly. The year-on-year decline in sales in the Xinjiang region continues to be significant. Most of the distributors in East China and Central China can basically achieve about a 10% year-on-year increase in feedback. The higher growth rate before the Southwest has slowed down. l Excavator utilization was flat on a month-over-year basis. The situation of downstream machinery observed by distributors was basically the same as in June. In terms of inventory, most dealers have normal inventory levels, which are sales from two weeks to one month. Only a few regions have experienced rapid sales declines, which has caused some dealers to increase their inventory to four to five months.
It is estimated that the sales of excavators in July will be around 6000 to 6500 units, achieving a year-on-year increase in single digits.
In June, heavy trucks were sold and sold 75,000 units, an increase of 50.8% year-on-year; the heavy truck industry continued the three-month growth trend after the positive sales growth began in April (+30%). From the perspective of our feedback tracking point of sale across the country, it is estimated that the first half of the policy resulted in lower purchases in advance. We expect the growth of heavy truck sales in the third quarter will continue to grow by around 20%. Replacement demand is still the main reason driving the positive growth of heavy truck sales in 2013. The heavy truck industry will usher in the industry trend that continues for three quarters since March.
New emission standards will bring challenges to the construction machinery industry
On July 1, 2013, the three-phase standard for the upgrade of the second-phase emission standard for non-road construction machinery and equipment in Beijing. Recently, the association has coordinated with the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, how to make it easier for companies to survive this period of transition. In principle, after the first day of July, equipment of the second-stage emission standards cannot be sold. 2 months flexible time.
The on-road construction machinery and equipment will require new Euro IV emission standards and will have a great impact on pump trucks, cranes and other equipment. The pump trucks have exceeded the four-phase standard. 99% of the chassis are imported, and the cost is more than 10 billion yuan.
Currently, eight cities have upgraded hoisting machinery from Euro III emission standards to Euro IV standards. The current problem is that cross-provinces will not be given licenses. The impact on the sales of used cars is relatively large, and the resulting cost impact is about 5 billion yuan. The association also hopes to give companies a buffer period in these areas.
The implementation of Euro IV emission standards for construction vehicles has been postponed twice by the State. It should have started on January 1, 2012, because the problem of oil products could not be achieved. After the Euro IV standard, urea must be added to the tank to allow the vehicle to operate normally. However, there is no clear statement so far. Pushing forward the implementation of Euro IV standards will be better as soon as possible from an environmental point of view. However, from the standpoint of preparation, the conditions are still not mature.
For the compression-type internal combustion engine equipped with construction machinery, the three-phase standard has already come out. It will be commissioned on October 1, 2014 and will be enforced on October 1, 2015. Under the premise, local laws and regulations will be more advanced than national regulations.