"The stimulating effect of the new tax reduction policy on the market will gradually increase in the 'trumpet' in this year and next." On October 8, Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. sales and marketing executive deputy general manager, Shanghai SAIC Volkswagen Sales Co., Ltd. General Manager Jia Mingwei is optimistic to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the New Deal will contribute 800,000 to 1 million units of sales to the next year.
On September 29, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting to determine support for new energy and small-displacement vehicle development measures, clearly from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, to purchase 1.6 liters and below. The passenger car implements a preferential policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax.
In the past National Day holiday, the impact of the New Deal on the terminal car market has been shown. "The products with higher displacements below 1.6L have more obvious benefits." On October 8, Lu Hongwen, general manager of Shanghai Greenland Auto Service Group Co., told the 21st Century Business Herald.
"The policy effect is to activate the automobile market in the short term. The deeper level is to point the way for the long-term development of automobile manufacturers. In the future, everyone will invest in the direction of small-displacement high-efficiency internal combustion engines and new energy sources, thereby expanding the scale effect and reducing the scale effect. Cost.” Shi Hong, deputy general manager of SAIC GM, believes that this may lead to the overall technological revolution of car companies.
Car companies began to bullish the new policy of the car market, so that car companies generally feel that the car market is hot. “The passenger flow during the 11th period increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.” Shi Hong told reporters that during the National Day of SAIC, Buick brand orders increased by 57% compared with last year; the total number of Chevrolet orders increased by 75%.
Shanghai Volkswagen, the old rival of SAIC GM, has not been affected by the public “exhaust valve”. The number of orders during the National Day increased by more than 70% year-on-year, especially for the Volkswagen brand below 1.6 liters. “The previous 1.6-liter displacement products sold by Shanghai Volkswagen, the Volkswagen brand is only 67%, and it has exceeded 70% during the National Day.” Jia Minghao said that the promotion of the New Deal should not be underestimated.
"Half the purchase tax halved, so that the consumer car ownership costs are further reduced, which promotes the release of consumers' purchasing power to a certain extent." Shi Hong said.
In fact, the displacement of 1.6 liters or less is the absolute main vehicle of the automobile market. According to the data, from January to August 2015, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 8,868,700, accounting for 68.05% of the passenger car market. This means that according to the current sales scale of more than 20 million vehicles in the current market, the New Deal will Covering more than 10 million vehicles every year.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth of the automobile market is far below the expectations of the manufacturers. The data shows that China's automobile production in January-August was 15.4484 million, down 0.53% year-on-year; among which, the production and sales of passenger cars were 12.97 million and 12.7921 million, an increase of 2.44% and 2.59%, respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 9.2 and 8.1 percentage points respectively.
"Automobile manufacturers generally expected 9%-10% growth this year, which was a misjudgment of the market." A senior manufacturer told reporters that this year's market situation has turned sharply and the inventory pressure of manufacturers and distributors has generally increased. However, after the introduction of the New Deal, the market expectation has increased significantly. On September 30, auto stocks opened higher, Shanghai Auto opened 5% higher, Changan Automobile opened 4.3% higher, Jianghuai 6.7%, Great Wall Motor 5.8%, and FAW 4.9%.
Manufacturers' expectations for the auto market are also rising. "In the fourth quarter of the car market, there should be sales growth," said Lin Jie, vice president of Geely and general manager of the sales company. Shi Hong also believes that the tax reduction policy, whether it is to slow down the pressure on manufacturers, or to promote consumer purchase decisions, is very beneficial; under the stimulus of the policy, consumers should be allowed to cancel the concerns and buy a car decisively.
The increase in the proportion of independent benefits for the purchase tax reduction policy for vehicles with a displacement of less than 1.6L was implemented once in 2009, bringing a blowout in the market. According to statistics, in 2008, the sales volume of passenger cars in China was 6.75 million, and by 2009 it had grown to 10.33 million, an increase of 52.93%.
"If there is no policy stimulus, the sales growth rate in 2009 should be around 20%." Jia Mingzhen believes that half of the increase in the auto market was driven by policy stimulus.
In addition to the small-displacement purchase tax reduction, the automobile sector also introduced policies such as trade-in, car-to-home and yellow-label renewal to remove other policy influences. Jia Mingzhen believes that the latest purchase tax halving policy will increase the auto market. Promotion, this year is about 200,000-300,000 vehicles, and next year is about 800,000-100,000 vehicles.
Different from the implementation of the policy in 2009, at that time, more of the joint venture models with higher prices benefited, and the implementation of this policy, the self-owned brands benefited a lot.
The purchase tax is levied according to 10% of the car's guiding price, from 10% to 5%. Consumers can directly reduce 3,000-4,000 yuan, and the high can reduce 10,000-20,000 yuan. “In 2009, the policy was relatively low due to the low price of self-owned brands. Therefore, most of the benefits were from joint ventures. However, the price of self-owned brands has also been raised. Therefore, the reduction in purchase tax is equivalent to that of joint ventures.” Say.
For example, 80% of the SUVs of Great Wall Motors are below 1.6 liters, and the price is equivalent to many A-class cars under the 1.6-liter joint venture. The amount of the purchase tax is equivalent.
In addition, compared with 2009, autonomous car companies have generally implemented a transformation strategy in recent years, and the price of bicycles has increased significantly, but it still dominates the displacement models below 1.6 liters. For example, all Chery products are covered by this policy. The models that can enjoy the purchase tax concessions account for more than 90% of Chery's total sales; Geely is 80%, and SAIC passenger cars are also over 80%.
In fact, although the auto market has fallen slightly this year, the growth rate of self-owned brands is much higher than the average level of passenger cars. According to statistics, from January to August this year, the cumulative sales of self-owned brand passenger vehicles totaled 451.47 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%. Among them, the biggest increase in self-owned brands was the SUV model, which means that after the purchase tax adjustment, the independent brand The competitiveness of the model will not decline.
Turbocharged and new energy vehicles are favored. Of course, the New Deal is always a few happy. Overall, turbocharged models benefit more. For example, after the purchase tax is halved, the Angkor 1.5T can be exempted from the maximum of 11,000 yuan, which makes the car's sales ratio in some 4S stores rapidly expand. Lu Hongwen told reporters that in the 4S stores managed by Greenland Motors, the sales of Angkor 1.5T accounted for about 20% of the previous sales, and now it has expanded to over 50%.
Japanese brands such as Honda and Toyota, which had previously had fewer layouts on turbines and had a power of 1.8 liters, benefited a little.
"The New Deal has a clear guiding effect on the future development of the domestic automobile market, that is, it clearly supports the development of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly vehicles such as small displacement and new energy," said Jin Yubo, assistant general manager of Chery Automobile. In this regard, Jia Minghao also said that the New Deal has pointed out the direction of future products, and Shanghai Volkswagen will plan more and more turbocharged models in the future.
In addition, the New Deal proposes to support the research and development of power batteries, fuel cell vehicles, etc., to carry out pilot demonstrations of intelligent networked vehicles, and to implement the proportion of new energy vehicles in enterprises and institutions. Local governments are not allowed to impose restrictions on new energy vehicles and purchase restrictions. Further accelerate the marketization process of new energy vehicles.
"In the future, everyone will be more unified in the direction of investment in new energy, which is conducive to the improvement of industry concentration, thereby further reducing costs and enhancing product competitiveness." Shi Hong said.
Data show that from January to August this year, China's pure electric vehicle production and sales completed 13,100 vehicles and 12,100 vehicles, although the year-on-year growth of 3.8 times and 6.1 times, but the base is still very small. The launch of the New Deal further clarifies the development direction of new energy vehicles in the future and will further guide the investment of car companies.

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