According to the principle of "adjusting once in ten working days," domestic oil prices will usher in a new price adjustment window on October 16 after the September 30 adjustment. Market analysis agencies predict that the domestic oil price is expected to usher in a slight downward adjustment and is expected to be reduced by 50-60 yuan/ton, or the smallest drop since this year. However, analysts also said that due to price adjustment at the critical price adjustment point, the current round of price adjustment may also be stranded.

Refined oil prices today welcome price adjustment window

According to the new refined oil pricing mechanism implemented on March 27, refined oil prices will be adjusted every 10 working days, but when the price of gasoline and diesel oil is reduced or reduced by less than 50 yuan per ton, it is equivalent to the amount of price adjustment per litre. Less than 5 cents, in order to save social costs, the retail price will not be adjusted for the time being, which will be added to or offset by the next price adjustment.

In the previous price adjustment window on September 29, domestic oil prices were lowered. The prices of gasoline and diesel decreased by 245 yuan and 235 yuan per ton, respectively, and the retail prices of gasoline No. 90 and No. 0 diesel (average of the country) were reduced. 0.18 yuan and 0.2 yuan. According to the principle of “adjusting once in ten working days”, refined oil prices today usher in a new price adjustment window.

In the current round of valuation cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuates. Market institutions predict that due to the negative rate of crude oil change, the current round of oil price adjustments rule out the possibility of rising. However, the current round of oil prices will be adjusted downwards or will not be adjusted, and there will be differences in market forecasts.

Slight reduction, stranding possibility coexist

According to Treasure Island, a large-product e-commerce platform, as of the ninth working day of October 16, the average price of reference crude oil (WTI, Brent, Brent, Dubai, ESPO) was 107.865, with a change rate of -0.97. %. Treasure Island analyst Wang Yanting said that the price adjustment window for refined oil products will start today. It is expected that the downward adjustment of gasoline and diesel will be 50-60 yuan/ton, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 0.04 yuan per liter. If the reduction in oil prices is implemented, the drop will hit the smallest drop this year.

Treasure Island analyst Zhang Bin said that due to this round of price adjustment is in the price adjustment point, the current round of price adjustment is also likely to strand. Longzhong Petrochemical Network also predicts that the reduction of gasoline and diesel is 50 yuan/ton, which is at the margin of price adjustment. The possibility of a zero adjustment of 0.04 yuan/liter at 0:00 on October 18 is unlikely.

Li Qiang, analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Products, said that the recent trend of international crude oil turbulence has made crude oil rate of change into an upward channel. The Zhuo Chong monitoring model shows that the crude oil change rate as of the close of trading on the 15th rose to -0.49%, and the corresponding price adjustment rate narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. If the international oil price falls by more than 5 US dollars/barrel today, Zhuochuang measures the change rate of crude oil. Corresponding amplitude adjustment will reach the critical price point of 50 yuan / ton, but the recent market does not have the impact of factors that affect the sharp decline in crude oil, this round of refined oil product prices are more likely to be stranded.

It is understood that the National Development and Reform Commission will announce the final information on this oil price adjustment this afternoon. According to regulations, on each price adjustment date, when refined oil prices need to be adjusted, a price adjustment notice will be announced at around 1700; if the price adjustment is less than 50 yuan and the price is not adjusted for the time being, the information will be released at about 15:00 on the price adjustment day.

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