On June 29, 2012, as the EU leaders summit reached a breakthrough agreement to resolve the debt crisis, it greatly boosted market confidence and the international oil price soared.

By the close of the day, light crude oil futures prices for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $7.27 to close at $84.96 a barrel, a rise of 9.36%, the largest single-day gain since February 2011.

The data shows that as of June 29, the change rate of crude oil in the three places has dropped to -8.62%, which is 0.46% lower than the previous working day.

In addition, the current 22-day average price of mobile mid-low price weight, therefore, a single day of crude oil prices last Friday has little effect on the rate of change of crude oil in the three places, but the decline has narrowed significantly.

Analysts believe that the temporary relief of the European debt crisis and the EU’s embargo on Iranian oil have provided significant support to international crude oil; however, the current global economic outlook is still not optimistic, and US crude oil inventories are at a high level. It is expected that the international oil price in the future will continue to rebound. Not much, the increase is also relatively limited.

Since the market's expectations for this summit were very low, it was originally expected that no agreement would be reached. Therefore, the results of the summit made the market very pleasantly surprised, and the boosting effect was naturally greater.

However, some analysts believe that this boost may be very short-lived and that there is little possibility that the international oil price will continue to rise.

According to the data monitoring model, since the crude oil spot has a lag period of one or two days relative to the futures, it is expected that the rate of change in crude oil prices in the three places closed on Monday will be significantly narrowed. According to the calculation of the average daily price of crude oil in the three places rising by US$1, the rate of change in the three regions will start to rebound and rebound at the fastest time on July 3. However, the rate of increase will be limited, and by the time it is met on July 10, 22 working days, The change rate of crude oil in the three places will still be around -7%, and the downward adjustment window will be opened again. However, if the international oil price continues to rebound recently, the probability of a four-pronged decline in the domestic refined oil market will decrease.

Analyst Li Bing believes that, as a whole, the soaring international oil prices may have a certain boosting effect on the market sentiment, and the short-term domestic refined oil market will tend to be stable. However, the soaring crude oil can hardly change the domestic oil product market's three consecutive losing streak. The bearish atmosphere in the market is still relatively strong. Traders adopt low inventory operations to reduce risks, and there is no fundamental improvement in market transactions in the short term.

In addition, it is expected that on July 11th, when the National Development and Reform Commission adjusts the price, the domestic product oil price reduction rate is expected to reach 500~600 yuan/ton. By then, the domestic retail of gasoline and diesel is expected to fully fall back to the "6 yuan era."

Other sources also stated that since the beginning of April this year, the rate of change in the three regions has been declining all the way, and domestic refined oil products have also been successively lowered twice. Looking at the current trend of international crude oil prices, the rate of change in the three places is expected to reach on July 11 when the price adjustment window opens. Breaking through -10% and continuing downwards, the three consecutive falls in domestic refined oil products are a foregone conclusion.

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